SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062038
OKZ000-TXZ000-062215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN TX INTO SWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 062038Z - 062215Z
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INVOF A DRY LINE
FROM THE RED RIVER AREA OF SERN TX PANHANDLE/SWRN OK TOWARDS THE
PECOS VALLEY. STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND AMIDST A MODERATE /BUT INCREASING/ ZONE OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONCERNS MAKE WW ISSUANCE
UNCERTAIN IN THE NEAR-TERM...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED DRY LINE FROM AROUND 40 E DDC
TO 30 E LBB TO 20 E INK. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
CONFIRM GROWING CB/TCU ALONG THE DRY LINE IN WRN TX ALONG THE
CAPROCK THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN. AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRY LINE CONSISTS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM 95 TO 100 F AND DEW
POINTS INTO THE 50S...INDICATIVE OF A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN MODEST /AROUND 20 KT AT 500 MB/...LOWER-LEVEL SLYS WILL
STRENGTHEN /ESPECIALLY AROUND AND AFTER 00Z/ IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AND NOCTURNAL LLJ
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW OF MORE
ORGANIZED HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WITH A FEW HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS PRIOR
TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION.
..GRAMS.. 06/06/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 33950121 34900053 35239987 35169935 34699900 34249912
33249962 31830073 30930158 30540232 30760285 31270292
33950121
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