MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0969

ACUS11 KWNS 071616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071616
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-071815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0969
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN NEB/SRN SD INTO EXTREME SW MN...PARTS
OF NRN AND CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071616Z - 071815Z

THE RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A
WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

WARMER CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR CONTINUES TO NOSE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH JUST NOW BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. A ZONE OF STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ON
THE EDGE OF THIS CAP...NORTH OF A STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE...APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING THE PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.
MEANWHILE...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE
GREAT BASIN...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THROUGH THE YANKTON/SIOUX FALLS AND SIOUX CITY AREAS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...PERHAPS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
STRONG SHEAR WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER...COUPLED WITH CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR MOSTLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS.

..KERR.. 06/07/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 43129995 44019828 44209618 43959470 43389261 42509310
41889505 41769647 41879806 41779899 42229979 43129995

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