SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071644
FLZ000-071845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071644Z - 071845Z
GUSTY WINDS...SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAK...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS ALREADY ONGOING AHEAD OF INLAND SEA BREEZE PROGRESSION.
STRONGEST ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED WITHIN A DEEPENING MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...AND ALONG
A POSSIBLE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE SOUTH OF TAMPA THROUGH AREAS
NORTH OF MELBOURNE. ALTHOUGH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS
LIGHT...A WESTERLY COMPONENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO EASTWARD ADVANCING
CONSOLIDATING STORM OUTFLOWS TOWARD AN INLAND DEVELOPING EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. AS THIS
OCCURS...CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN PENINSULA.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER/STEEPENING LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURSTS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. AND...A LINGERING COOL MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE
LIMITS IN SHORT-LIVED STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES.
..KERR.. 06/07/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
LAT...LON 25608110 26578135 27348156 27738141 28468084 28298058
27218020 26478001 25698018 25188048 25608110
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