SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071718
MOZ000-071815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071718Z - 071815Z
THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED.
RECENT NEW VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS
APPEARS PRIMARILY FORCED BY A STRONGER ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION
REGIME ON THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EMANATING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDING THE CREST OF
BROADER SCALE RIDING MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE FORCING OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL/LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...THIS
POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BE PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED... AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS BEGIN TO BACK...AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE...IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF ONGOING STORMS...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER CAPPING MAY SUPPRESS THE VIGOR
OF CONVECTION.
..KERR.. 06/07/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 39539322 39809217 39229144 38629084 38189060 37629068
37319088 37099195 37249273 38659364 39539322
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