SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101404
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-101530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0904 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN INTO NRN MS AND NWRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101404Z - 101530Z
TSTMS ONGOING OVER WRN TN ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SLIGHT
RISK WILL BE ADJUSTED SWD WITH UPCOMING 1630Z ISSUANCE.
12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A QUITE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS EXISTS THIS MORNING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER MS VALLEY
WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F AND 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 15-17
K/KG. THIS MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S.
PLAN VIEW PROFILER AND VWP DATA INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC MID TO
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A
CONTINUED SEWD MOTION OF ONGOING STORMS OVER WRN TN. GIVEN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
BOWING SYSTEM CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.
..MEAD.. 06/10/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 35229024 35888998 36128925 35918860 34928769 34278760
33808784 33698849 34238953 35229024
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