MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1072

ACUS11 KWNS 121438
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121438
MSZ000-ARZ000-121545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN AR INTO NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 121438Z - 121545Z

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF OK BOW
ECHO. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS THE BOW ECHO MOVES OUT OF WW
387 BY LATE MORNING...THOUGH THIS ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED SOONER
SHOULD DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
ALSO...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS BEING CONSIDERED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FOR THE UPCOMING 1630Z ISSUANCE.

A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS ARE SLOWLY TRYING TO BECOME ORGANIZED
FROM N OF MLC TO SW OF PBF WITHIN A ZONE OF BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA PER
REGIONAL VWPS AND PROFILERS. 12Z OUN/SHV/LIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED
THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND A DECREASING CAP WITH EWD EXTENT. RESULTANT MUCAPES
RANGED FROM 3000-4000 J/KG.

AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS...IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT AT LEAST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE TODAY TO
THE N OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM CNTRL OK SEWD
THROUGH SRN AR INTO NRN MS AS OF 14Z. GIVEN THE ALREADY STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE THAT
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITHIN
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING
STRUCTURES TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM OK BOW ECHO.

..MEAD.. 06/12/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 33959303 34219364 34569413 35039400 35559350 35699220
35609146 35279090 34779025 34099020 33709051 33619141
33959303

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