SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131841
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-131945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE ERN PLAINS OF CO / SERN WY / NEB
PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131841Z - 131945Z
WW LIKELY NEEDED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF THE ERN CO
PLAINS EXTENDING NWD INTO SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING OVER CO FRONT RANGE WITH
A GRADUAL EROSION IN LOW CLOUDS E OF I-25 IN CNTRL/ERN CO.
MID-LEVEL MOISTENING /IMPLIED LARGE SCALE ASCENT/ IS OVERSPREADING
PARTS OF WRN CO/SRN WY...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER IMPULSE RAPIDLY
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION.
TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND NEAR THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE BEFORE MOVING ENE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 18Z
SURFACE TEMPS NEAR FCL HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH
A CONVECTIVE TEMP NOW BEING BREACHED PER THE 12Z DNR
RAOB...EXPECTING STORM INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO.
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES /SURFACE DEWPOINTS 50-55 DEG F/ HAVE LED TO
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG.
STRENGTHENING FLOW IN THE 4-8 KM AGL LAYER PER PLT VWP SINCE THIS
MORNING AND STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS DISPLAYED IN MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STORMS WILL QUICKLY ORGANIZE WITH DISCRETE CELLS
/INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ THE PREFERRED MODE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE
A LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND THREAT...WITH ISOLD TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
..SMITH.. 06/13/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39620325 39050336 38850375 38770438 38870482 39930527
41100530 42330545 42650528 42680466 42460391 41930355
39620325
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