SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141707
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-141830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS INTO SERN AR AND NERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141707Z - 141830Z
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRAILING AL MCS. SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL EXIST
AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATION AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A
GROWING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING AL MCS WITH
THE MOST CONCENTRATED DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER SHARKEY...HUMPHREYS...
NRN YAZOO INTO HOLMES COUNTIES OF CNTRL MS AS OF 17Z. AIR MASS
ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WARMING THROUGH THE 80S...AND WHEN
COUPLED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...ENVIRONMENT IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. FURTHER HEATING
AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY 18-19Z AS REMAINING CAP IS ERODED.
REGIONAL VWPS AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT THIS LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY RESIDES ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
/40-50 KT/ MIDLEVEL FLOW WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE STORM
ORGANIZATION. SOME HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
..MEAD.. 06/14/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33309229 33489183 33299090 33148918 33028881 32898847
32298866 32158970 32699194 33039232 33309229
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