MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1233

ACUS11 KWNS 191557
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191557
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-191730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN KS THROUGH NRN MO INTO W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191557Z - 191730Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

15Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A RATHER COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN OWING TO
THE PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMNANT FROM NOCTURNAL
TSTM ACTIVITY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS RATHER
WELL-DEFINED /PER VISIBLE IMAGERY/ FROM NEAR OR JUST N OF THE MKC
METRO AREA NEWD TO NEAR UIN. RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM NE OF MKC TO NEAR IRK...LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG 45 KT WSWLY LLJ /PER
AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS/.

BASED ON 12Z TOP/SGF SOUNDINGS...INFLOW AIR MASS IS ALREADY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM. THIS INSTABILITY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND INCREASED FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ALL SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.

CURRENT LATHROP MO PROFILER IS LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WSWLY
WIND FIELDS AND AROUND 50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...SETUP
WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWS AND
PERHAPS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.

..MEAD.. 06/19/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON 38669497 39069500 39499485 40339353 40589204 40649077
40369045 40029054 39529157 38989307 38609474 38669497

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