SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211857
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-212030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND AND NWRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211857Z - 212030Z
GUSTY TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS FORMING OVER WRN ND AND NWRN SD
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW.
AT 18Z...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED NEAR THE ND/SD/MT BORDERS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED N FROM
THE LOW INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AS WELL AS SW INTO CENTRAL WY. A TONGUE
OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS EXTENDED NW FROM CENTRAL SD INTO WRN ND AND FAR
NERN MT...WHILE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FRONT WERE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A S/W TROUGH LIFTING NWD ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF ASCENT WAS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN. AS THIS ADDITIONAL ASCENT APPROACHES
THE WRN DAKOTAS...AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.
DUE TO THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION BETWEEN THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...STORMS
WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. DUE TO WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J PER KG/...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AS WELL AS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
..GARNER.. 06/21/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...
LAT...LON 45420112 44330185 44070284 44180375 44670400 45930402
48970408 49210281 47560166 45420112
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