MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1272

ACUS11 KWNS 221625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221625
FLZ000-221830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221625Z - 221830Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE E FL COAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME HAIL
MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
FL WITH MID TO UPPER 70S F DEWPOINTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THE
SAME TIME...SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR WAS IN PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS.
THIS CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS LAYER OF DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN
BOTH MAX HEATING IS ACHIEVED AND A MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME ARRIVES OUT
OF THE N...HELPING TO CONDITION THE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN NWLY SFC
WINDS ACROSS THE PENINSULA...ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
E COAST. LARGE DOWNDRAFT CAPE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODERATE NWLY WINDS OF 30-40 KT EXIST IN THE
MID LEVELS. THUS...ONCE STORMS INITIATE...THEY WILL LIKELY
DRIFT/PROPAGATE S TO SW...WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SOME SMALL
HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY AS WELL WITH THE STRONGEST CORES...ALTHOUGH NOT
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 06/22/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 28468190 28768166 28748062 28348043 26967993 26267989
25458025 25548057 25558088 25878121 26458153 27288162
27708172 28158185 28468190

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