SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231535
MNZ000-NDZ000-231730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND..NRN/CENTRAL MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231535Z - 231730Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER W CNTRL MN ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BNDRY/GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS OVER EXTREME SERN ND...WHILE
ELEVATED STORMS OVER EAST CNTRL ND HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF SLOW
STRENGTHENING DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
CONVECTIVE STORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC SHEAR
ZONE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSING
NEWD ACROSS NRN ND INTO SRN MANITOBA. THE WARM SECTOR ACTIVITY
ACROSS WEST CNTRL MN IS MOVING INTO A CLOUD-FREE REGION THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
AS THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING EXHIBITED SHALLOW DEPTH OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND LATEST GPS DATA INDICATED LESS THAN 1 INCH IPW ACROSS
SRN/CNTRL MN. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH INTO THE AREA...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE PBL WILL
ENHANCE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THUS...CURRENT STORMS MAY GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND A WW MAY BE
NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
..WEISS.. 06/23/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 45679550 46499606 47089729 47399849 47939831 48639677
48739448 48479298 48089192 47209216 45989286 45719408
45679550
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