SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241912
MNZ000-SDZ000-242045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN SD...SRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 241912Z - 242045Z
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN SD MOVING INTO DAY COUNTY HAVE
SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFYING DURING THE LAST 30-60 MIN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO. THE
STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA UNDERGOING CONTINUED AFTERNOON
HEATING...LIKELY TRAVELING ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. KABR VWP SHOWS
WSWLY WINDS OF 30-40 KT ABOVE 3 KM AGL...CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 40-45 KT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
PRODUCTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY FOR
STRONGER WIND GUSTS IF THE STORM BASES CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE PBL.
FARTHER WEST...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS WWD FROM NORTH OF HON TO
NORTH OF PIR WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORMATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
..WEISS.. 06/24/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 44860035 44919879 45439774 45569613 45469412 44949372
44389383 43929484 44029678 44009845 44179997 44590037
44860035
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