SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251902
MTZ000-WYZ000-252030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251902Z - 252030Z
HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF SWRN AND CNTRL MT AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACH DRY ADIABATIC. SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST A
FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE NOW PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AHEAD OF ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. 18Z TFX SOUNDING IS QUITE MOISTURE-STARVED WITH ONLY
.52 IN PWAT OBSERVED. OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGESTS A NARROW AXIS OF
PWAT ON THE ORDER OF .75 IN WITHIN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT
QUITE DRY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE
NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS DO FAVOR DRY
MICROBURSTS...HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS LOW AS THEY
ARE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW.
..DARROW.. 06/25/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...
LAT...LON 45281329 47291113 48880973 48780656 47050761 44641157
45281329
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