SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261606
NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-261700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN NY...NRN/CNTRL VT...NRN NH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 261606Z - 261700Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER VORTICITY MAX OVER SWRN ONTARIO
MOVES SEWD THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...REGIONS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AND THIS MAY LIMIT WIDESPREAD HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES BREAKS IN CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NERN NY TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND THESE
REGIONS MAY CONTAIN FAVORED CORRIDORS FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH DEW POINT VALUES
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE
CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET ARE ENHANCING INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. AREA VWP DATA SHOW 30-40 KT WINDS
ABOVE 3-4 KM WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
EWD/SEWD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
..WEISS.. 06/26/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43297750 43747649 44467566 45017482 45017338 44977207
45227109 44177103 43077353 42327461 41997621 42107736
42317802 43297750
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