SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261717
NCZ000-SCZ000-261815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL PLAINS OF NC/SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261717Z - 261815Z
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
PRIMARY THREATS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS AN INCREASING CU FIELD IN A LINE
ROUGHLY EXTENDING FROM FRANKLIN VA SWWD TOWARDS COLUMBIA SC...LIKELY
IN PART DUE TO A DYING VORT MAX FROM YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION THAT HAS
NOW REACHED CNTRL NC/SC. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BENEATH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND AS AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING/LOWER 70S DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. WEAK FLOW WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF
STORMS...ALTHOUGH 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT GOES PWAT IMAGERY SUGGEST
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. PULSE STORMS AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RESIDING IN
THE PIEDMONT OF NC/SC...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SEA
BREEZE THAT HAS JUST BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND. AS STORMS SLOWLY PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE COAST...BRIEF INCREASES IN INTENSITY MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZES CONVERGE. RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK FLOW SUGGEST ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT...WITH A PREDOMINANT THREAT OF WINDS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN.
..HURLBUT.. 06/26/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 33837896 32768017 32968120 34078149 34848040 35567903
35887807 35917714 35747646 34937684 33837896
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