SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271819
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-271915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN IA...SRN WI AND NWRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271819Z - 271915Z
ENVIRONMENT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MO...SERN IA WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THESE
STORMS TO SPREAD INTO NWRN IL/SRN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED BY 20Z FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
AS UPPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS SHIFTS EWD...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
BETWEEN 5-12 KM...AS DEPICTED BY MODELS AND VERIFIED BY WIND
PROFILER IN NERN NEB...ARE RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS WRN IA. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS SOMEWHAT
COMPLICATED BY THICK CLOUDS LOCATED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT FROM
CENTRAL IA NWD. HOWEVER...ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO...SUNNY SKIES HAVE
WARMED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90...AND GIVEN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...MLCAPES ARE NEAR 2000 J/KG. AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES...SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO INITIATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MO/SERN IA AREA OF STRONGEST
INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN SHIFT RAPIDLY ENEWD IN
STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT. A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..IMY.. 06/27/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
EAX...
LAT...LON 41649339 44058961 44188754 42558793 40958998 39869252
40329386 40889412 41649339
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