MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1366

ACUS11 KWNS 281719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281718
GAZ000-FLZ000-281815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA...NERN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281718Z - 281815Z

CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING IN SRN GA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE SPREADING SEWD. OCCASIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. DUE TO
MARGINAL NATURE...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THOUGH TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

INITIATION APPEARS TO BE ONGOING AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT...NOW DRAPED ROUGHLY JUST S OF SAV NWWD TO THE W OF ATL...WITH
AN INCREASING CU FIELD AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SRN GA.
AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S HAVE QUICKLY DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH
MLCAPE NEAR 3000 TO 3500 J/KG ACROSS SRN GA AND INTO NERN FL. 12Z
RAOBS GENERALLY SHOWED PWATS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WHICH
WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SWD TOWARDS THE FL/GA BORDER.
ALTHOUGH SOME SUBSIDENCE MAY LINGER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AN
ELONGATED AREA OF FAVORABLY TIMED REMNANT VORTICITY MAXIMUMS NOW IN
NRN MS/AL AND NWRN GA WILL CONTINUE SEWD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AND AHEAD OF UPPER RIDGING TO THE W...PROVIDING ASCENT.
GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES/MOISTURE CONTENT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION LOADING/EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY SUPPORT A WET
MICROBURST THREAT...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES NEAR 1
INCH AN HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED
TO THE COAST...AS STORMS APPROACH AND CONVERGE...BRIEF INCREASES IN
INTENSITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SEVERITY
OF STORMS...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..HURLBUT.. 06/28/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29918122 29718179 29868253 30238331 30658391 30968474
31448431 31588412 31608323 31748279 31398150 30808136
29918122

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