MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1405

ACUS11 KWNS 021921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021920
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-022015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1405
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NY...MA...CT...RI...NJ...PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021920Z - 022015Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF PA/NJ/NY AND
SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIMITED IN BOTH DURATION AND COVERAGE.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SLGT RISK AREA MAY BE REDUCED OR REMOVED
FROM THE REGION WITH THE NEXT 20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE.

MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND IS COINCIDENT WITH A SLOW-MOVING
OCCLUDED LOW AND FRONT OVER NRN/ERN NY...AND A WEAK SECONDARY
CYCLONE LOCATED OVER SERN NY/WRN CT. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO EXTEND
EWD FROM THE SECONDARY LOW FROM CT TO NEAR CAPE COD. AIRMASS ACROSS
THE REGION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE TODAY GIVEN THICK CLOUD
COVER AND HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS EARLIER TODAY. SOME CLEARING IS
NOW OCCURRING ACROSS PA/NJ/NY AND CT AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
GREATER DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS ANOTHER
VORT LOBE AND SUBSEQUENT LARGER SCALE ASCENT PIVOTS AROUND UPPER LOW
ACROSS NY AND SPREADS EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LATEST SOUNDING AND PROFILER INFORMATION APPEARS TO SUGGEST LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR THIS NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF HAIL/WIND DMG. MOIST LAPSE RATES AND GENERALLY MARGINAL SHEAR
AOB 30KT INDICATED BY LATEST ALBANY RAOB ARE CONSISTENT WITH RUC
MODEL AND ACARS SOUNDINGS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NYC AREA AND CT.
THUS...WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/LIGHTNING...AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
COULD DEVELOP...OVERALL SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT CONTINUING A SLGT RISK OR ISSUING A WATCH.

..CARBIN.. 07/02/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 42637125 41667023 41207099 40797278 40687358 40677435
40977482 41427538 41567531 42067499 42687432 42647340
42637125

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