SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032021
MTZ000-032215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT...SRN ALBERTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032021Z - 032215Z
A FEW SEVERE HAIL STORMS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NWRN MN WITH A WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY W-E ACROSS SRN ALBERTA. AMPLE SUNSHINE
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S
F OVER MUCH OF NERN MT.
SELY SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINTAINING MID TO UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS
ACROSS ERN MT. A MODIFIED 17Z GGW SOUNDING SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE WITH GENERALLY WEAK BUT VEERING FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6 KM. AT
THE SAME TIME...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY
COOL...AND WINDS PICK UP ABOVE 400 MB.
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER NERN MT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING SEWD OUT OF
ALBERTA. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER T/TD SPREADS ARE
HIGHEST.
..JEWELL.. 07/03/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 47130876 47110938 47641022 48201027 49230951 49630800
49690697 49560591 49430518 49570426 48670453 48000459
47360507 47200587 47160722 47130876
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