SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041939
MTZ000-042215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN INTO CNTRL MT...SRN ALBERTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041939Z - 042215Z
STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE
HAIL LIKELY.
SURFACE HEATING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF MT WITH TCU OVER THE E
SLOPES AND SWRN MTNS. THE 12Z TFX SOUNDING SHOWS RELATIVELY COLD AIR
ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT WITH ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL WLY FLOW.
MODIFYING THIS SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS
1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE. OF NOTE ON THIS SOUNDING WAS THE LACK OF ANY
CAP AND A DEEP AND WELL MIXED LOW 50S F DEWPOINT.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE ESE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HAIL A DISTINCT
THREAT. MODIFIED HAILCAST MODEL SUGGESTS MAX HAIL SIZE OF AROUND
1.00"...AND PERHAPS A BIT LARGER WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO
OVER-ACHIEVE GIVEN A MARGINAL WIND PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS.
..JEWELL.. 07/04/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...
LAT...LON 46441229 47591293 48311372 49091501 49641568 50451463
50461320 49361196 48391058 47910969 47460738 46740759
46170788 45680933 45441133 45851229 46441229
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