MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1456

ACUS11 KWNS 061906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061905
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-062000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1456
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ID...MT...WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061905Z - 062000Z

EXPECT TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MT AND NWRN WY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
POTENT AND WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LATEST SURFACE AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT ON THE ID/MT BORDER. WEAK LEE
TROUGHING EXISTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND A QUASI-STATIONARY WARM
FRONT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SERN MT. THESE FEATURES...IN
ADDITION TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL ACT AS FOCUSING
MECHANISMS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.

AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING ACTS TO STEEPEN MID LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING/WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE IN THE 800-1200
J/KG RANGE...MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ROBUST STORM UPDRAFTS IN
THE PRESENCE OF INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE INITIALLY QUASI-DISCRETE
CELLS/SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED AND TAKE ON LINEAR
CHARACTERISTICS AS COLD FRONT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED EAST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TODAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO BEFORE ACTIVITY
MERGES AND EVOLVES INTO SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS BECOMING MORE OF A THREAT WITH TIME.

..CARBIN.. 07/06/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON 44250889 44271267 45971397 47741398 48261315 48631162
48580833 48030672 46600622 45920634 45000750 44250889

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