Monday, July 6, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1458

ACUS11 KWNS 061958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061958
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-062030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN SD / SWRN MN / NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061958Z - 062030Z

INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF SERN SD / SWRN MN / AND NWRN IA. A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED FOR
THE 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE.

RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STRADDLING THE SD/MN
BORDER MOVING SEWD ALONG OLD STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY AIDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A
STORM OVER LINCOLN COUNTY MN EXHIBITING WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION IN
THE PAST HOUR. A RESERVOIR OF LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ON THE WWD SIDE
OF BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED UPDRAFTS AS THEY PROPAGATE TO THE
SE. ADEQUATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LAPSE
RATES FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY SERVE TO MAINTAIN STORM INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING--POSING MAINLY AN ISOLD LARGE
HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT.

..SMITH.. 07/06/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 43209537 43229593 43649683 44839790 45699893 46089856
45949761 44849635 43829538 43209537

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