MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1473

ACUS11 KWNS 071801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071800
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-071930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 PM CDT TUE JUL 07 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...NRN NJ...ERN NY...SRN NH...SRN
VT...MA...RI...CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559...

VALID 071800Z - 071930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559
CONTINUES.

A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WINDSOR CNTY VT
SWD ACROSS SWRN CT AND LONG ISLAND SOUND IS MOVING EWD 20-25 KT.
STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST HOUR AS THEY MOVE INTO A
NARROW THERMAL/INSTABILITY AXIS FROM LONG ISLAND THROUGH CENTRAL MA.
AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS APPROACHING
THE WRN EDGE OF THE WATCH...FROM FRANKLIN CNTY NY SSWWD INTO WYOMING
CNTY PA.

WELL DEFINED DYNAMIC FORCING REMAINS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS ERN PARTS OF NY
AND PA...WITH STRONG ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSING INTO PARTS OF PA. STRONG MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS IMPINGING INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE COMPENSATING FOR RELATIVELY COOL LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WITH SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITHIN THE INSTABILITY
AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND.

WEST OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...CLEARING HAS OCCURRED PLACE ALLOWING
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO TAKE PLACE OVER ERN NY
AND NERN PA. THE WRN BAND OF STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
REGION DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

..WEISS.. 07/07/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
CTP...

LAT...LON 42027469 42747463 42897513 44007513 44047433 43777407
43737338 43347315 42807082 42287085 41997129 40797165
40227362 39977372 40197479 40437548 40887594 41207546
41097500 41707455 42027469

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