SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102320
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-110045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...WRN NEB...NE CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 102320Z - 110045Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SE WY...WRN NEB AND
NE CO THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A WW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL AND WRN NEB WITH A
MOIST AXIS LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNWWD
INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING ABOUT 100
STATUTE MILES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON THE NRN END OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. THE LATEST RUC ANALYZES A 55 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET
OVER THE NRN PLAINS EXTENDING WWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS
FEATURE IS CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER FAR WRN NEB INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXCEED 7.5 C/KM WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IF A PERSISTENT
SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR
ESPECIALLY IF A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE LATER THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 07/10/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40470260 40320326 40620373 41310447 41870488 43060434
43160365 42830276 42580185 41690171 40470260
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