SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112306
NYZ000-PAZ000-120100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...MUCH OF PA...WRN AND NRN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 112306Z - 120100Z
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM PA
INTO NY. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...HAIL...AND A
FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
INITIAL BAND OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED E INTO ERN
NY TO VT WITH CLEARING BEHIND. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED FROM SW ONTARIO INTO SRN QUEBEC AT 23Z. BACKED SURFACE
WINDS REMAIN ACROSS NERN PA INTO ERN NY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
GREATEST HERE WITH 0-1 KM SRH TO AROUND 200 M2/S2. FARTHER W...850
FLOW IS A BIT MORE VEERED CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH...BUT SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO DESPITE LARGELY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS.
ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING IS DIMINISHING...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PERSISTS. THUS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT MAINLY FROM NRN PA ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY. IN
GENERAL...THE TORNADO...HAIL...AND WIND THREATS APPEARS
MARGINAL...BUT ALL THREE DO EXIST.
..JEWELL.. 07/11/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 45027358 43197372 41727521 41077664 41027674 40667793
40607956 40948044 42048049 42537945 43337914 43447757
43507668 44167639 44877520 45067483 45027358
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