SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121805
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-121930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN IL/SRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 121805Z - 121930Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
IS DEVELOPING NEAR OR WITHIN THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
UNAFFECTED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH FLOW FIELDS/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ARE CURRENTLY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...A 40+ KT 500 MB JET
STREAK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z. ASSOCIATED FORCING/SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
UPSCALE GROWTH AND ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALREADY
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. IF/WHEN THIS
OCCURS...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PROBABLY WILL
INCREASE...IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
PERSISTENT/TRAINING STORMS.
..KERR.. 07/12/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 37278954 37928964 38578934 38568858 38588735 38448609
38208547 37168504 36798568 36448655 36488735 36748873
37278954
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