SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122005
COZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-122130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/CO...WRN NEB PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 122005Z - 122130Z
TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PROMOTE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS CONVECTION SPREADS ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS INTO EARLY EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE BIG HORNS TO THE CNTRL CO ROCKIES.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO ATTM...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS WEAKER AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 3 TO 5 DEG F LOWER.
NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE WLY HIGH-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KT FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT
ROTATION. WITH LESSER BUOYANCY SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY A WEAK TO MODERATE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SPORADIC AND
PRIMARILY CONSIST OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS.
..GRAMS.. 07/12/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...
LAT...LON 44090685 44390654 44450542 44150464 43250401 41830332
40480283 38810278 37940374 37890443 38090561 38670571
40950613 43710709 44090685
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