MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1550

ACUS11 KWNS 132025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132025
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-132130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK AND WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 132025Z - 132130Z

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE CAPE VALUES OVER ERN OK AND WRN AR...THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS EXISTS IF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. THE ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

WV IMAGERY REVEALS A REGION OF MID LEVEL MOISTENING AND POSSIBLE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT MOVING SE OUT OF KS AND TOWARD ERN OK/WRN AR.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE
90S TO AROUND 100 DEG F...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S PRESENT FARTHER E
OVER CENTRAL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN
AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST HR...WITHIN AN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FALLING SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WHICH
POSSIBLY INDICATES A LOCAL MINIMUM IN CINH. IN ADDITION...THE
COMBINATION OF HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IS
RESULTING IN A HIGH LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIRMASS...YIELDING MLCAPE
VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. THESE CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.
IF A STORM MANAGES TO DEVELOP...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD
BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ALONG WITH HIGH MELTING POTENTIAL...MAY NEGATE THAT THREAT
SOMEWHAT.

..GARNER.. 07/13/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 35499567 34839572 34249553 33789488 33699409 34159298
34899271 35589297 36189361 36489443 36159538 35499567

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