SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142333
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-150130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1561
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB INTO WRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 142333Z - 150130Z
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND/OR ACROSS A
WARM ADVECTION ZONE FROM SERN NEB INTO WRN IA...WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRAVEL SEWD WITH TCU ALONG IT. MORE
VIGOROUS CELLS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST S OF WW 583 ACROSS NERN
NEB. FARTHER S...AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD EXISTS WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 90S F...WHILE FARTHER E INTO IA AND NW MO
CU WERE MUCH MORE SUBDUED DUE TO COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
AND CAPPING.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH A MODIFIED 20Z
OAX SOUNDING SHOWING MUCAPE TO ABOUT 4000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR WAS NOTED IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER...ALONG WITH POOR LAPSE RATES. THUS...THERE ARE CAPPING
CONCERNS IN THIS AREA. LESS CAPPING EXISTS FARTHER N CLOSER TO WW
583 WITH COOLING AT 700 NEAR THE COLD FRONT...AND THAT IS WHERE
DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EWD INTO IA...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER SE
NEB S OF THE OMA AREA WILL GET MUCH ACTIVITY.
..JEWELL.. 07/14/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 40659536 40499598 40499704 40679763 41059805 41749735
42199694 42209645 42569540 42729458 42659388 41859369
40939393 40699421 40659536
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