MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1581

ACUS11 KWNS 161938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161937
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-162100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SWRN KS INTO THE OK AND NRN TX PNHDLS AND
NWRN/N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161937Z - 162100Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ARCING NWWD FROM N-CNTRL OK /NEAR PNC/ TO JUST W OF DDC AND
GCK. ANOTHER BOUNDARY INTERSECTED THE FORMER JUST W OF GCK BEFORE
ARCING SWWD THROUGH FAR SERN CO /S OF SPD AND TAD/. AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS EXPERIENCING NEAR FULL SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE RICHEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS N-CNTRL INTO NWRN OK WHERE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DECREASES SLIGHTLY WITH WWD EXTENT THROUGH
THE OK/TX PNHDLS OWING TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AS WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS FURTHER DESTABILIZES AND REMAINING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ERODES. AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE GENERALLY WEAK
WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 5-6 KM AGL WHICH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR WELL-ORGANIZED STORM FORMATION.
NONETHELESS...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE FORMATION OF STORM
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN DCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG.

..MEAD.. 07/16/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36070338 36410317 36900187 37090141 37300073 37390035
37029915 36769816 36709685 36259677 35929696 35689807
35660101 35590228 35780320 36070338

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