SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181914
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-182115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AND E CNTRL NM...SERN CO...AND THE TX
PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 181914Z - 182115Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SERN CO...NERN NM INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE BY 21Z AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE SWD. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN OK NWWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO SERN CO AND CONTINUES TO BE REINFORCED BY ELEVATED STORMS
DEVELOPING ON ITS COOL SIDE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ABOVE
THE THETA-E RIDGE WEST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG FROM THE TX PANHANDLE...NERN NM INTO SERN CO
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND NERN NM. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY FARTHER EAST ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BELT OF 25-35 KT
NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW BENEATH SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS IS RESULTING IN
35-40 KT BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
RAPIDLY SWD INTO THE EVENING.
..DIAL.. 07/18/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 38020316 35240076 34149983 33140021 33160348 34710457
36500515 37890496 38020316
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