SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192022
NEZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-192215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...WRN ND...WRN SD...NWRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 192022Z - 192215Z
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD OFF
THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
ABOVE MOIST AXIS WHERE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. STRONG DIABATIC WARMING HAS RESULTED IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE INDICATED ON LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
WIDESPREAD HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER WY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FARTHER
EAST...BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS IS INCREASING OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF
SD AND ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS SERN MT. STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING AND MID LEVEL FORCING ATTENDING EWD ADVANCING IMPULSE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION...INITIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AND FARTHER NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH ERN MT. NWLY BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES.
..DIAL.. 07/19/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 41400225 41780363 44560410 46090481 47770385 47590214
45920223 42350145 41400225
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment