SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192254
TXZ000-200030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 603...
VALID 192254Z - 200030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 603
CONTINUES.
THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE REGION IS
WEAK/UNCLEAR...PERHAPS LIMITED TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
BENEATH BROADLY DIFLUENT NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING. CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE OUTFLOW
APPEAR TO HAVE STABILIZED A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA
...AND A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ENHANCED SEA BREEZE HAS STABILIZED MUCH
OF THE HOUSTON METRO AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHORT LIVED STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN POCKETS OF LINGERING
MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING.
..KERR.. 07/19/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 33239802 33229525 30079404 30139678 33239802
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