SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202007
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-202100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY INTO WRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 202007Z - 202100Z
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE REQUIRED.
A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN HAS EVOLVED TODAY ACROSS REGION OWING TO
THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE FRONTAL SURGES. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR
THE WY/SD /W OF RAP/ SSEWD THROUGH THE WRN NEB PNHDL /NEAR OR JUST W
OF BFF/. THIS BOUNDARY WAS MOVING WWD OR SWWD AT 10-15 KT. TSTMS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS WITHIN
UPSLOPE REGIME ALONG THE BIG HORNS...AND OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY
FORM WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. FARTHER
E...OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING WITHIN
IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER N-CNTRL NEB N/NW OF LBF.
INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE MIDLEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE SHOULD
SUPPORT A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND 40-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
..MEAD.. 07/20/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...
LAT...LON 41400499 42850601 44010656 44450600 44380510 42690393
42370347 42020254 41790090 41750009 41050028 40440125
41400499
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