SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231925
COZ000-232030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1649
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 231925Z - 232030Z
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS ERN CO HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S THROUGH 19Z...WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 40S. BASED ON OBSERVED 12Z DNR RAOB...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
IN THE UPPER 80S HAS BEEN REACHED...THUS CINH APPEARS TO BE NEARLY
REMOVED ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STORMS
INCREASING IN NUMBER ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...WITH MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN PLAINS INVOF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE
STORM NE OF LIMON COLORADO HAS QUICKLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY DURING
THE LAST HR...DISPLAYING REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES SUGGESTIVE OF LARGE
HAIL POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES AOA 30-40 KT MAY SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELL TO POSSIBLE
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. GIVEN LARGE SCALE MID LVL HEIGHT RISES...AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY...WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
..GARNER.. 07/23/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 39050478 40390475 40940354 40790274 39740207 38200223
37460277 37310362 37630433 39050478
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