MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1650

ACUS11 KWNS 231956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231956
NEZ000-232130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1650
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND N CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231956Z - 232130Z

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE OVER WRN AND N CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. IN ADDITION...THE REGION WILL BE UPGRADED
TO A SLIGHT RISK IN THE 20Z DAY 1 SVR WEATHER OUTLOOK.

REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING SWD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WRN NEB...WHICH IS
FOCUSING AN AREA OF SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT KLBF AND KBBW HAVE INCREASED FROM
THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70...LIKELY DUE TO PREVIOUS GROUND WETTING
PRECIPITATION AND SUBSEQUENT EVAPORATION. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 90S OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE...WHICH IS
RESULTING IN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. BETWEEN THIS
ZONE OF STRONG HEATING TO THE W...AND MOISTENING TO THE E...LIES A
REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE VALUES/ FROM
ROUGHLY KVTN TO KOGA. AN AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER CHERRY COUNTY...WITH OTHER SCATTERED STORMS FORMING IN
THE WELL MIXED AIRMASS OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. GIVEN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF WRN AND N CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SELY SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO NWLY AND INCREASING IN SPEED TO 30 KT
IN THE MID LEVELS IS RESULTING IN VERTICAL WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 35 KT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP
NWLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW MAY PROMOTE FAST MOVING COLD POOLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND REMNANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARIES
PRODUCED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
MAY EXIST.

..GARNER.. 07/23/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

LAT...LON 41090254 41730300 42420271 42960189 42950039 42369985
41529992 40890092 41090254

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