Thursday, July 23, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1651

ACUS11 KWNS 232039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232039
MNZ000-NDZ000-232245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232039Z - 232245Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 23/21Z-24/00Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSING SEWD THROUGH
ERN MT/WRN ND...EXTENDING GENERALLY FROM E OF MOT-NEAR DIK-S OF GDV.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 90S.
WHILE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SK/MB SHORT WAVE
TROUGH STILL REMAINS N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND A HOT BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 21-00Z.

THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF NWLY
DEEP SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..MEAD.. 07/23/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 47240095 48579972 48979858 48899741 48379714 47439745
46559914 46390025 46560057 47240095

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