SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242052
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-242215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA/SWRN WI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 617...
VALID 242052Z - 242215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 617 CONTINUES.
LOCAL SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS WW 617.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EARLIER/INTENSE SUPERCELL
OVER ERN IA HAS DISSIPATED...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUE OVER FAR SERN MN/NERN IA/SWRN WI...AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WHERE SOME DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED IN THE
WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS. WITH A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY OVER ERN IA AND
LOCALLY-BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT MAY LINGER
OVER PARTS OF NERN IA AND VICINITY. HOWEVER...GREATER THREAT IN THE
SHORT TERM APPEARS TO BE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.
ATTM...PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL/LATER STORM DEVELOPMENT -- AND THUS
AN EXPANSION IN SEVERE POTENTIAL -- REMAIN UNCERTAIN. DEEP-LAYER
FLOW REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS MUCH OF IA AND SRN MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WOULD SUPPORT STORMS
SHOULD INITIATION OCCUR. ATTM HOWEVER...ANY NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS FAR FROM CERTAIN -- IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION -- WITH A
GENERAL LACK OF LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY AND ONLY
LIMITED CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. WITH BOTH WW 616 AND 617
SET TO EXPIRE AT 24/22Z...PORTIONS OF SERN MN/WRN WI/IA/NRN IL MAY
REQUIRE NEW WW ISSUANCE TO COVER THE EVOLVING -- BUT UNCERTAIN --
SEVERE POTENTIAL...WHICH WOULD APPEAR ATTM TO BE GREATEST ACROSS ERN
IA/NWRN IL.
..GOSS.. 07/24/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 41139184 42319217 43699181 43499011 41448825 40618966
40769138 41139184
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