SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252033
NMZ000-COZ000-252200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 252033Z - 252200Z
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE OVER
SERN CO AND NERN NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE.
AT 20Z...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM ROUGHLY ALS ESE
TOWARD RTN AND THEN EWD ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING IS TAKING PLACE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
ERN PLAINS OF NERN NM/SERN CO. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NM/CO IN RESPONSE TO FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION...AND WILL LIKELY ROLL EWD ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE OBSERVED ALONG AND N
OF THE FRONT...WHILE A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE W...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG E OF THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL FAVOR
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFTS WITH TIME...THOUGH A LACK OF PROMINENT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY CONFINE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND HIGHER TERRAIN. E-NELY LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW OVERLAYED BY N-NWLY MID LVL WINDS E OF AN UPPER HIGH
MAY ALLOW STORMS TO BRIEFLY ORGANIZE AND PULSE UPWARDS TOWARD SEVERE
LEVELS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS A RESULT...BUT A WW IS NOT LIKELY.
..GARNER.. 07/25/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 39210478 37020316 36000334 35650442 35670544 36820615
38170638 39070583 39210478
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