Tuesday, July 28, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1702

ACUS11 KWNS 282015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282014
KSZ000-OKZ000-282115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS/NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 282014Z - 282115Z

WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO NRN OK
WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RECENT INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /30-35 KT/ SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
FROM CENTRAL/SRN KS ENEWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO IN THE VICINITY OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE STATES. AN ADDITIONAL STORM OR TWO
WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN OK. THE WEAKENING OF SURFACE BASED CINH
DURING PEAK HEATING AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN KS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. 15Z NAMKF SUGGESTED STRONGEST
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SRN
KS/NRN OK WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

FARTHER E INTO MO...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION...BUT LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

..PETERS.. 07/28/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 38129922 38309826 38449688 38329556 38109535 37499514
36719556 36279648 36229772 36359877 37109946 37579982
38129922

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