SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302151
WIZ000-ILZ000-302345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL/SERN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 302151Z - 302345Z
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS NRN
IL/SERN WI...WHERE LIMITED THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO
EXISTS. WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND A ISOLATED/LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING FROM SERN WI SWWD INTO NWRN IL...ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY /AOB 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE/ IS INDICATED.
WHILE AREA VWP/PROFILER DATA REVEAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK ACROSS
THIS REGION -- LARGELY UNSUPPORTIVE OF LONGER-LIVED TORNADOES. THUS
-- WHILE A FEW COLD AIR-TYPE FUNNELS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK VORTEX
TOUCHDOWN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT AND THE STRONGLY-DIURNAL COMPONENT TO
THE ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR WW
ISSUANCE.
..GOSS.. 07/30/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42728767 42188758 41888845 41568967 42289004 43708854
44128744 43188753 42728767
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