WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 639

WWUS20 KWNS 302042
SEL9
SPC WW 302042
ARZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-310200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
JACKSON MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MEMPHIS
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD MOTION AND
OVERALL LINEAR ORGANIZATION MOVING INTO W-CENTRAL MS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE NEAR SURFACE LOW INTO ERN AR/NRN MS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS WW INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING WITH
PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...AND ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF WW NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
WHERE SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28040.

...EVANS

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