SWODY1
SPC AC 020057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2009
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CONUS PORTION OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY MEAN
TROUGH OVER UPPER MS VALLEY AND OZARKS...AND RIDGING OVER W COAST
STATES. STACKED/DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER NWRN ONT IS FCST TO EJECT
NEWD TOWARD SRN HUDSON BAY. TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED AT
23Z FROM E-CENTRAL LS SWD ACROSS ERN LM...THEN SSWWD OVER MO
OZARKS...EXTREME S-CENTRAL OK AND TX PERMIAN BASIN -- IS FCST TO
REACH LH...WRN OH...NWRN MS...AND S-CENTRAL AR BY END OF
PERIOD...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER WSW ACROSS N AND W TX.
....INTERIOR ORE/NRN CA...NWRN NV...
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED...INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
NERN CA AND EXTREME NWRN NV NWWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL ORE.
00Z MFR SOUNDING APPEARED TO SAMPLE PRECONVECTIVE/LOW-ELEVATION
ENVIRONMENT WELL. LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WITH PW TO 1.3 INCHES...AND
STEEP DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...SUPPORT MLCAPE REACHING INTO
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...ATOP INVERTED-V PROFILE CHARACTERISTIC OF
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. NERN FRINGE OF 25-35 KT 500 MB WINDS
ORBITING OFFSHORE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN SUPPORT OF
A FEW ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS...WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS POSSIBLE. SVR HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM ONE CELL NEAR
CRATER LAKE AS OF 0055Z.
...SERN CONUS TO CENTRAL AND SW TX...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS MULTICELL TSTMS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY IN OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING REMAINDER EVENING...WITHIN LONG
PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND NOW MOVING SEWD TO SWD ACROSS REGION.
ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM STRONGEST CELLS
ANYWHERE IN THIS SWATH...ALONG WITH BRIEF HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS OVER
TX SEGMENT OF THIS CORRIDOR WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RELATIVELY STEEPENED. BRIEF HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH MORE ISOLATED TSTM CLUSTERS OVER LOWER OH VALLEY OR
SERN OK NEAR FRONT....HOWEVER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO MRGL AND COVERAGE
TOO SPARSE FOR PROBABILITIES AOA 5 PERCENT.
...SRN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO FORM FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS...MOVING SEWD BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WIND/HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL MODE. HOWEVER...LIMITED
INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH SEWD EXTENT ONTO
PLAINS...AND WITH TIME...SHOULD KEEP SVR POTENTIAL MRGL AND CONFINED
TO NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN.
..EDWARDS.. 08/02/2009
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