SWODY1
SPC AC 090039
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2009
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY EWD INTO
THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
...UPR MS VLY/GRTLKS REGIONS...
00Z ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW NW OF KMSP WITH A WRMFNT DRAPED SE
ACROSS CNTRL WI AND INTO EXTREME SRN LWR MI. A CDFNT EXTENDED SWWD
FROM THE LOW INTO ERN NEB. WARM SECTOR WAS CHARACTERIZED BY MID-70S
SFC DEW POINTS BENEATH A SUBSTANTIAL CAP /BASE EML TEMP 17+ DEG C/.
MID-LVL SPEED MAX THAT HELPED SUPPORT EARLY AFTN SUPERCELL ACROSS
ERN SD AND SWRN MN WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT APPROACHED THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GRTLKS. WEAKENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAP WERE DETRIMENTAL IN SUPPORTING
SFC-BASED CONVECTION.
ATTENTION WILL NOW TURN TO ELEVATED SVR POTENTIAL ALONG/N OF THE
SFC-H85 WRMFNT. NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE SWLY LLJ WILL ENHANCED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM ECNTRL/NERN MN EWD ACROSS WI...UPR MI AND
NRN LWR MI THE REST OF THE NIGHT. 00Z GRB/MPX SOUNDINGS SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5-8 DEG C PER KM AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF ROUGHLY 40 KTS. EXPECT ELEVATED BANDS OF STORMS
TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS
POSSIBLE GIVING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER BAND OF ASCENT ASSOCD WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
APPROACHING THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. SFC WIND SHIFTS
HAVE SURGED SWD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS ALL DAY AND REPLENISHED LLVL
MOISTURE /MID 40S TO MID 50S DEW POINTS/ RESULTING IN MODEST CAPE.
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE NWD INTO SERN
WY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ESE LLVL FLOW VEERING STRONGLY TO SWLY IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE WILL BOOST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. EVENTUALLY...A SMALL MCS MAY
EVOLVE AND MOVE ESE INTO THE NEB PNHDL...NERN CO AND EXTREME NWRN KS
WITH GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.
..RACY.. 08/09/2009
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