SWODY1
SPC AC 140049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2009
VALID 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM GTF/GGW/RAP VERIFY EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING THE
MARGINAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.
DIAGNOSTIC DATA BASED OFF THE RUC AND OBSERVED DATA SUGGEST JUST
ENOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS MT FOR MOIST
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG/POST FRONTAL FROM NORTH OF LVM...NWD
TO NEAR HVR. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AND
ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE PROCESSES ACROSS THIS
REGION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF AN ORGANIZED BOW ECHO CAN EVOLVE.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...ISOLATED MORE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS ARE DEVELOPING
FROM NCNTRL WY...ACROSS WRN SD INTO WRN NEB. LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
A BIT WEAKER ACROSS NEB...BUT SRN INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
AHEAD OF SFC LOW MAY AID CONVECTION ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER. SHEAR
PROFILES NEAR THE SFC LOW CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE AFOREMENTIONED MEAGER
MOISTURE. IF STRONGER SHEARED UPDRAFTS CAN SURVIVE INTO NWRN
SD/ND...THEN SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACCORDINGLY AS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS A BIT GREATER ACROSS THIS REGION.
..DARROW.. 08/14/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment