SWODY1
SPC AC 160033
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2009
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
LARGE SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO BE OVERSPREADING FRONTAL ZONE WHERE
WELL DEVELOPED SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED FROM SWRN SD...SWD INTO THE
NEB PANHANDLE. SEVERAL BOW-TYPE FEATURES...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE EMBEDDED ALONG THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WITH FORWARD
SPEED NOW PROPAGATING ENEWD AT ROUGHLY 40KT ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER.
00Z SOUNDING FROM LBF APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
MAINTENANCE/INTENSIFICATION OF LARGE MCS WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG WITH WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND FAVORABLE
MOIST ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT. LATEST THINKING IS A GRADUAL
EXPANSION...AND POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION...TO MCS WILL OCCUR OVER
SRN SD/NEB THIS EVENING...WITH LEADING EDGE OF MCS POSSIBLY REACHING
THE MO RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z IF ACTIVITY DOES NOT SLOW IT/S FORWARD
MOTION. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD SOME SLOWING WILL OCCUR...HOWEVER HAVE
EXPANDED SLIGHT RISK INTO SWRN MN/NWRN IA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THIS MCS MAY MIGRATE EAST OF THE MO RIVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
..DARROW.. 08/16/2009
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