SWODY1
SPC AC 290434
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2009
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES
WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE SWRN U.S.. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL AS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SC WILL EJECT NEWD AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EWD AND
SEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES...WHILE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S.. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS.
...CNTRL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AREA...
NELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES IN POST FRONTAL REGION WILL RESULT IN
MEAN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
OVER ERN CO DURING THE DAY. THE MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDING
BENEATH 7.5-8.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH 400-800
J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE SSEWD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
...ELSEWHERE...
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM THE SERN
U.S. INTO PARTS OF THE NERN STATES. HOWEVER...MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW.
..DIAL/GARNER.. 08/29/2009
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