SWODY1
SPC AC 251231
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2009
VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...WI INTO CENTRAL KS...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXES LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH
A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN WI INTO CENTRAL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT. FOR
THESE REASONS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS...STRONGER CELLS IN THIS AREA WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS OF EASTERN CO AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER UT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO REGION. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY IS
LIKELY TO LIMIT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
..HART/GRAMS.. 08/25/2009
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