SWODY1
SPC AC 310056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009
VALID 310100Z - 311200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE ESE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
ID...WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT DIVIDE
VICINITY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...00Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM
BOISE SAMPLED THE MODEST INSTABILITY/COOL MID LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES...WITH AROUND 780 J/KG MUCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH
-16C AT 500 MB. AS SUCH...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY/MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL POTENTIALLY TO SEVERE LEVELS THIS EVENING.
...SOUTHEAST STATES...
MID LEVEL IMPULSE/SPEED MAX CENTERED OVER AL EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION ENE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUING IN VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE/MOIST AXIS. AS SAMPLED BY 00Z REGIONAL OBSERVED
RAOBS...TENDENCY FOR NOCTURNAL COOLING/WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL LARGELY CURB TSTM VIGOR...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT YET THIS EVENING.
...EASTERN PORTIONS OF CO/NM...
A FEW STRONG TSTMS MAY CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE CO/NM HIGH PLAINS...BUT CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING/NOCTURNALLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A
WANING SEVERE RISK THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
..GUYER.. 08/31/2009
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